BY FELIX NWANERI
writes on the move by chieftains of the main opposition political parties to form an alliance that will unseat the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2027 presidential election
The coming together of a number of political parties in 2013 to form the All Progressives Congress (APC) ahead of the 2015 general election re-enacted an existing trend in Nigeria’s politics referred to as politics of merger or alliance. APC’s emergence at the time was like a bolt out of the blues not because Nigerians were unaware of the party’s coming, but because nobody expected that the main opposition political parties at that time would close ranks and fuse into one platform.
The parties that dissolved into APC were Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) as well as factions of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) otherwise known as New PDP. While it was doubt in some political quarters then against the backdrop that previous mergers never worked, founding members of the APC expressed optimism that their party will defeat of the then ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2015 presidential election.
Their dream turned to reality, when against expectations, the candidate of the then opposition party, Muhammadu Buhari, defeated the incumbent president, Goodluck Jonathan, by 15.4 million to 12.8 million votes. APC’s victory not only cut shot of PDP’s dream of being at the helm of affairs for 60 years as its leaders boasted at a time, but marked the first time an incumbent president would lose election in Nigeria’s political history.
In what seemed a repeat of history, there are indications of a similar political arrangement ahead of the2027 general election given the move by some chieftains of the main opposition political parties to form a formidable platform that will turn the table against the APC in 2027. The move started, which started following a call by former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar in November last year for opposition political parties to come together and create a more formidable front that will salvage Nigeria’s democracy from sliding into a one-party state, is fast gaining momentum.
Atiku, who was the presidential candidate of the PDP in the 2023 elections, pointed out that a formidable coalition is necessary to address the perceived decline in democratic values and to prevent Nigeria from becoming a de facto one-party system. He also noted that the project of protecting democracy in the country is not about just one man. His words: “The project of protecting democracy in our country is not about just one man. You have come here today to say that we should cooperate to promote democracy.
But the truth of the matter is that our democracy is fast becoming a one-party system; and, of course, you know that when we have a one-party system, we should just forget about democracy “We have all seen how the APC is increasingly turning Nigeria into a dictatorship of one party.
If we don’t come together to challenge what the ruling party is trying to create, our democracy will suffer for it, and the consequences of it will affect the generations yet unborn.” Atiku did not stop at his call for the opposition to close ranks; he later met with the presidential candidate of Labour Party (LP) in the 2023 elections, Mr. Peter Obi. Obi placed third in the last presidential election with 6.1 million votes against Atiku’s 6.9 million votes in the election won by President Bola Tinubu with 8.7 million votes, and the duo are being urged to team up in order to give the incumbent a run for his money in 2027.
While those propping Obi believe that his candidacy will still enjoy the support of the youth like it did in the 2023 elections, while Atiku’s supporters believe that his political structure, which spreads across the six geopolitical zones of the country is a veritable political tool that cannot be ignored in the bid by the opposition to unseat the ruling party.
In what seemed a response to Atiku’s call, the polity is awash with reports of alignment and realignment of political forces by key opposition figures as well some members of the APC in readiness for the 2027 general election.
One of such moves was the January meeting between a former governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai, with the leadership of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and some allies of Atiku. Although the outcome of the meeting, which held at the national secretariat of the SDP in Abuja, and had the likes of Hamza Al-Mustapha (former Chief Security Officer of General Sani Abacha) and a former spokesperson of Atiku campaign organisation, Segun Sowunmi, was not made public, its agenda was not far from the alignment move among major opposition figures to oust President Bola Tinubu in 2027.
A similar meeting between the presidential candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) in the 2023 elections, Rabiu Kwankwaso, and a former Minister of Interior, Rauf Aregbesola, held recently in Lagos. The meeting, which was day after Omoluabi Progressives, Aregbesola’s political group, left the APC, according to sources, centred on “strategies ahead of the 2027 election.” However, days later, the Osun State chapter of the APC expelled Aregbesola over alleged antiparty activities.
A familiar path
There is no doubt that most Nigerians are likely to welcome an alternative political platform given the discontent against the established parties, particularly the ruling APC and even the main opposition PDP. Both parties have held sway at the federal level and in most states since 1999, when Nigeria returned to civil rule.
The PDP was in power at the centre between 1999 and 2015 (16 years), while APC that came to power in 2015, will mark 10 years in power by May 29, and would have been 12 years in power by 2027, when the incumbent president, Bola Tinubu, is expected to serve out his first term in office.
However, almost 26 years of democratic governance, the belief among a majority of the citizenry is that the two dominant parties have failed to meet expectations of the people hence the need for a platform that will not only do away with the old order, but enthrone visionary leadership, which ensures that government, serves as a vehicle for attainment of socioeconomic aspirations of the masses.
Interestingly, the fresh bid to rally the opposition parties against the APC is not the first time such move would be made to turn the political table against the ruling party. Claims of dismal performance against the immediate past Buhari-led APC government prompted calls for a third force to unseat him in the 2019 general election as well as halt PDP’s bid to return to power at that time. Consequently, political alliances were hurriedly muted, with big names flaunted.
The move got heightened, when former President Olusegun Obasanjo led the first set of coalition under the aegis of Coalition of Nigeria Movement (CNM). Obasanjo not only rallied some of his loyalists, including a former governor of Osun State, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, he promised to be part of the struggle.
However, at the inauguration of the CNM, the ex-president canvassed for a movement that is not necessarily a political party from the outset, but could later take the form of a party and lead the country to the Promised Land. The birth of CNM spurred other groups like the Nigerian Intervention Movement (NIM), led by a former President of the Nigeria Bar Association (NBA), Olisa Agbakob. What followed were merger talks between the respective groups and some political parties.
One of the outcomes of the talks was CNM’s fusion with the African Democratic Congress (ADC). Expectedly, the alliance moves attracted a greater percentage of youths, who were buoyed by the passage of the Not Too Young To Run Bill and its assent to law. The belief of most youths then was that new approaches are needed for the nation’s problems against emphasis on age and experience. But politics being a game of interest masquerading as a contest of principles; it did not take time before cracks appeared in the coalitions.
While lack of cohesion and disagreement over choice of presidential candidates contributed to the crumbling of the coalitions, the last straw that broke the camel’s back was when Obasanjo made a detour and endorsed the candidacy of Atiku, who served as vice president during his reign and was nominated for the poll by the PDP.
The aftermath was that the much anticipated hope of a break from the past never materialised hence Buhari and several other public office holders at that time, viewed by many as members of the old order, were re-elected with only a pocket of youths making it to the legislative houses.
There was another move against the APC ahead of the 2023 elections, when some notable politicians rallied under the aegis of Rescue Nigeria Project (RNP) to stop the party from returning to power. Arrowheads of the move then include a former governor of Kwara State, Abdulfatah Ahmed; onetime presidential candidate, Prof. Pat Utomi; ex-Minister of Education, Prof. Tunde Adeniran; a former governor of Cross River State, Donald Duke and erstwhile National Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof. Attahiru Jega. No doubt, most Nigerians had wished that the RNP would transform to a strong and credible political party or align with the existing ones, particularly the PDP to give APC a run for its money in the 2023 general election, but like the 2019 move, nothing came out of the bid. Rather, it was Peter Obi’s led Obidient Movement that redefined the political landscape on the platform of Labour Party (LP)
Puzzles over 2027 move
The questions against the bid for alliance ahead of the 2027 general election are: Will members of the opposition close ranks this time? Even if they succeed in coming together, can they sustain the steam given the fact that it takes more than merger to unseat a ruling party?
To most analysts, the proposed alliance is likely to hit the rocks if its arrowheads are looking at a platform to actualise their individual political ambitions. While there are no declarations yet for the 2027 presidential election, there is no doubt that key opposition figures like Atiku and Obi will contest the poll given their respective body languages.
While many have continued to ponder over who will step down for the other between Atiku and Obi if the propose alignment works, an indication to the belief that it would be difficult for the opposition parties to close ranks is predicated on the divergent views being expressed by both camps, championing the alliance.
For instance, it was a twist, when the National Chairman of the SDP, Alhaji Shehu Gabam, dismissed any political alliance with Atiku el-Rufai ahead of the 2027 general election. Gabam, who spoke in an interview with a television station asserted that the SDP remains focused on strengthening its internal structures and presenting Nigerians with a credible political alternative. His words: “There’s no alliance with anyone.
As the chairman of the party, I have not engaged in any discussions about alliances. Our focus is on reviewing our strategies from 2024 and building a dynamic, inclusive platform.” On his relationship with el-Rufai, the SDP national chairman acknowledged the ex-governor’s influence in Nigerian politics but stressed that their connection is purely personal.
“El-Rufai is a major force, but my relationship with him is personal, not political. Some people magnify his presence to create unnecessary controversy,” he explained. Gabam, who criticized the ruling APC and main opposition PDP, saying both parties have failed to meet the expectations of Nigerians, making it imperative for citizens to consider alternatives. Obi, on his part, says he is not against the idea of a coalition ahead of the next presidential poll, but insists that he never join any alliance solely focused on seizing power without prioritising the welfare of citizens. “Let me set the record straight: I am not against coalition.
In truth, I am for it not for power grab but to position Nigeria for greatness. I have not, and will never, advocate for any coalition or alliance that does not prioritize the welfare and progress of the ordinary Nigerian. “Any discussion about governance must centre on what it means for the everyday Nigerian, how it will address critical issues such as access to quality healthcare, education and pulling people out of poverty.
Too often in our nation’s history, individuals and groups have come together solely for the purpose of taking power for power’s sake. “Such endeavours, devoid of genuine purpose and vision, have only deepened our challenges, leaving the ordinary Nigerian to bear the brunt of bad governance.
This is what I stand firmly against. “Leadership must be about service, not self-interest. It must be about building a nation where opportunities abound for all, where justice and equity are non-negotiable, and where governance works for the people, not against them. “As I have always maintained, the New Nigeria is possible. But it requires us to change the way we think about power. It is not about grabbing it; it is about using it responsibly to transform lives and secure a brighter future for generations to come.”
APC not perturbed
Reacting to the coalition move by the opposition political parties, the national leadership of the APC and the presidency, boasted that no amount of gang-up will stop President Tinubu in 2027. Declaring that the President is ready for any challenge from opposition leaders in 2027, the presidency, which faulted comments by the political opponents of the Tinubu administration, describing them as “distracting” and “Machiavellian.”
Speaking through Sunday Dare, Special Adviser on Media and Public Communications to the President, the presidency advised the leading opposition figures – Atiku, Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso of New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) – as well as other critics like El-Rufai and Rotimi Amaechi (a former governor of Rivers State) to wait till the next general election before they flex muscles. Dare, who insisted that the activities of the opposition leaders are premature, said:
“This is 2025, not 2027. Let those who want to test their popularity with Nigerians wait for the next election.” He emphasised that President Tinubu remains focused on his mandate to improve the lives of Nigerians and build a resilient economy, despite the distractions.
“The only conversation he (Tinubu) wants to have now is how to improve the lives of Nigerian citizens and constructive discourse on building a resilient economy,” he said. National Vice Chairman of the APC (South-East), Dr Ijeoma Arodiogbu, on his part, said the ruling party is not worried over the moves by the opposition figures. His words: “As it is in the Bible; surely they shall gather and they shall scatter. We are not worried that they are gathering because they will definitely scatter. We are not worried about what El-Rufai does next. We know that his trajectory in politics is highly disturbed now.
“After our election in 2023, he displayed himself as a man who cannot be trusted across the regions. The way he disparaged Christians in Nigeria, a secular society, has made him a leper. Nobody goes anywhere close to him. El-Rufai is just desperate for recognition now and I wonder why the media is giving him that attention. “We are not worried about the unholy alliance because it will amount to nothing. It is just a gathering of disgruntled people, trying to lick their wounds. Tinubu remains the president and there is nobody that can stop him in 2027.”
Arodiogbu noted that the reforms of the Tinubu administration, which the opposition may be planning to campaign with are currently yielding the desired results Nigerians, so the people cannot afford to surrender leadership to desperate politicians whose sole interest is state capture. “When 2027 comes, what will they use to campaign to Nigerians? Will they tell them that they plan to reintroduce fuel subsidy? Not possible! We are already bouncing back to the days of glory.
They have seen that forex t is stabilised, and the people are beginning to see a light at the end of the tunnel. “People are now beginning to understand the essence of all the reforms President Tinubu has implemented. You can see that the policy reforms implemented by the President are beginning to yield fruits.”
Opposition stakeholders react
While it is dismissal of any possible threat the proposed alignment is likely to pose for Tinubu by the leadership of the APC, a chieftain of the PDP, Eddy Olafeso, who spoke on its prospects, said coalition is the only guarantee to defeat APC n 2027. Olafeso, who is a member of the PDP Reconciliation Committee, therefore advised his party to speak with Obi and leaders of other opposition parties for an alliance ahead of the general election.
“Not only Peter Obi, every person, who is somebody in this country and can actually garner one or two votes must be spoken with,” he said, insisting that it will be difficult for any single political party to defeat the APC without a strong alliance. “It is not only here that you have alliances; you have people working together to be able to win an election.
It happened in Ghana not quite a long ago and that is exactly what we all should do at this moment, no single party can defeat the APC alone, don’t let us delude ourselves. We must all come together to fight,” he added. Blaming the PDP leadership for the balkanisation of the party ahead of the 2023 election which contributed to its loss at the polls. Olafeso noted that the combination of Atiku and Obi’s votes would have sent Tinubu to a distant second.
But, National Publicity Secretary of Labour Party (LP), Obiora Ifoh, who believes that his party can win the 2027 presidential election without entering a coalition with other political parties, said that LP has not been approached for coalition talks, but remains open to alliances with favourable terms, weighing merits and demerits. Ifoh predicated his optimism on what he described as LP’s widespread popularity and strong connection with Nigerians, which underscores its ability to independently challenge the ruling APC.
“As it stands, Labour Party has not been approached or invited to any meeting whatsoever to discuss a coalition. What we see already is that people are thinking of alternatives and how best elections can be won in a landslide against the ruling APC. “Labour Party didn’t need any coalition in 2023 when it gathered millions of votes from Nigerians, who wanted Labour Party to take over the leadership of the nation. We will continue to say that the system played a trick on both Nigerians and Labour Party.
“We know that Labour Party has what it takes to win elections at the highest level and we demonstrated that in 2023. If elections were to hold again today, Labour Party would even do it in a bigger way because the government of the day has failed. “Everything that Labour Party stands for and canvassed in 2023 is what Nigeria needs at the moment.
So, we do not even really need a coalition to win the election. However, the idea of a coalition is not bad. If Labour Party is approached, the party will look into it to scrutinise, see the merits and its demerits.” Similarly, NNPP’s spokesperson, Ladipo Johnson, who said his party is open to an alliance or collaboration, maintained that such a collaboration should be an amalgamation of people of like minds. “We are open to any meaningful coalition that will bring hope to Nigerians. By God’s Grace, we will have lìkeminded people in the same team. That is what building a coalition is about,” he said.
Beyond alliance
Olufemi Aduwo, the Permanent Representative of the Centre for Convention on Democratic Integrity (CCDI) at the United Nations, who spoke on the coalition move by the opposition, said it will take more than coming together to unseat Tinubu and his party in 2027. In a piece titled “Opposition unity alone won’t defeat Tinubu: A strategic alliance is key,” Aduwo posited that it is not enough for the opposition to simply unite, but must woo APC bigwigs, particularly governors.
His words: “I have heard calls for the opposition parties to come together to defeat Tinubu, but let us be honest, many of these parties are built around individuals, both the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). “Take the formation of the APC in 2013.
It came about from the merger of Nigeria’s three largest opposition parties. The Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), and All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), alongside a breakaway faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).
“These parties had governors, which was crucial. In November 2013, five serving governors from the PDP defected to the APC. Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers, Abdulfatah Ahmed of Kwara, Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano, Murtala Nyako of Adamawa and Aliyu Wamakko of Sokoto.
Unknowingly to Atiku Abubakar, the walk-out led by him during PDP convention was the moment his political ambition hit a dead end. “In the 2015 presidential poll, the “New PDP” states delivered a massive 3,322,010 votes to Muhammadu Buhari, who defeated Jonathan by 2,571,758 votes. Without this group, the APC and Buhari would have lost.
“So, it is not enough for the opposition to simply unite, they need to secure at least seven APC governors. Anything less, they are merely engaging in a game of musical chairs with no real substance. If they are serious about change, they need to win over key APC figures.” Aduwo also spared some words of advice for Atiku and Obi. “Now, let us talk about Atiku. He’s so power-hungry and self-centred that it is almost laughable.
He dreams of ruling Nigeria, but the reality is, he will never get close to that office. He is a politician who has been outmanoeuvred far too many times and seems incapable of understanding the wider national interest beyond his own ambitions.
“Peter Obi, my friend, doesn’t fully grasp Nigeria’s geo-political reality. In 1979, Papa Obafemi Awolowo, running for the presidency under the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), picked an Igbo man, Dr. Philip Umeadi, as his running mate and Papa Awolowo was both the party’s presidential candidate and national chairman.
“This made the party vulnerable in the North, as it was seen as a predominantly Christian party. In 1983, however, Awolowo understood the dynamics better and chose Alhaji Kura from the North. “The national chairman of Labour Party, a Christian from the South-South, is a big minus. LP should have considered the wider political landscape before making such a decision. This is a political game of strategy, not just idealism.
“The Labour Party is certainly not representative of Nigeria’s diverse religious and ethnic makeup, which limits Obi’s chances of winning. He needs to broaden his political base if he hopes to succeed. Currently, he doesn’t have a party since he doesn’t belong to the Abure LP faction, which is lawfully recognised.
“So, the opposition must get their act together and realise that it is not about just uniting for the sake of unity. It is about securing strategic alliances with key political figures, particularly within the APC. Without that, the opposition is doomed to repeat its past mistakes.
Sowunmi (erstwhile spokesperson of Atiku campaign organisation and a former PDP governorship aspirant in Ogun State), who corroborated Aduwo’s position, described the idea of a merger of the opposition parties in order to defeat Tinubu as “a very lazy approach.” He emphasised that it is misguided to think that unseating the incumbent president requires only a merger, especially when he secured just about eight million votes out of the 80 million votes available in 2023.
He said: “It’s very lazy and extremely annoying that a political party like PDP is not working very hard in the field to try to make itself electable. And to do that, they need to stop the quarrel. Number two, they need to do a differentiation of why people should vote for them. “You can’t be speaking from the same side as the ruling party. You are not as efficient as them, and you want people to dump them for you. You can’t be saying, ‘Oh, I want to be president,’ and your only pathway for president is not to get into the field and start working, but to sit there and be talking as some people are going to come and join you.
There is a pathway for them to win without all this nonsense talk of merger.” He proposed that opposition figures should take responsibility for their own future, saying: “They have a right to look for platforms to contest their election. But they must call it that. They can’t be giving the impression that those of us that have been loyal, staying with the PDP since it was formed, are fools because we are saying, don’t destroy the house because you can’t have your way.”
Questioning the feasibility of such a merger, he said: “When you bring all six of you together, which of you have agreed to be the president? Then all of you will then bolt out of the arrangement, claiming that you didn’t get what you want.
You, who cannot even endure in a legacy party like PDP, are you the ones that will endure if you go to another party and you don’t get what you want?” To unseat the ruling party, Sowunmi maintained that opposition parties must present realistic, actionable and verifiable ideas rather than relying on alliances.
“You are not going to come and defeat any incumbent just by thinking that you can say you are harvesting misery. The bottom line is that you must be bringing to the table realistic, actionable, verifiable, at least hopeful ideas,” he said.
He warned against allowing divisive figures to infiltrate opposition parties, while pointing out the potential danger of alliances with the Social Democratic Party (SDP). “I hear them talking about SDP. With due respect, Shehu Gabam, my brother, don’t allow them to come to your party and start dictating this and that. The attitude that they used to destroy their party, never allow them to bring it to your party.”